The Index of Leading Economic Indicators is an important tool used to forecast the direction of the economy. In October, it fell and The Conference Board reported that this could indicate a recession in the future. However, despite this decline, a recession has not yet occurred after 19 months of decreasing values.

One reason why we are not currently experiencing a recession is due to the strength of consumer spending, which has exceeded expectations. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica at The Conference Board predicts that a recession will occur early next year, but she believes it will be short in duration. This is because data shows that there has been no significant decline in manufacturing or the housing market.

U.S. economist Matthew Martin at Oxford Economics has also adjusted his forecast for a recession. While he still expects unemployment to increase and labor conditions to become more challenging, he now predicts that a soft landing is more likely than a hard crash. He emphasizes that his forecast can be updated if new economic data becomes available.

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Overall, while the economy continues to face challenges and uncertainty, it’s important for individuals and businesses alike to stay informed about key indicators and trends in order to make informed decisions about their financial futures.