Morgan Stanley has predicted that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will continue to tighten at a slower pace, following in the footsteps of other financial institutions. According to Hande Kucuk, CEEMEA Economist at Morgan Stanley, the company estimates that the policy rate will increase by 250 basis points in the next meeting. However, despite the lack of specific forward guidance from the CBRT, Morgan Stanley anticipates that the pace of tightening will slow down.
The CBRT’s preference for a moderate adjustment in growth and delays in monetary transmission have led to this prediction. As a result, it is likely that the bank will reduce the rate of tightening and evaluate the impact of cumulative steps on economic activity and inflation.
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