If Croatia beats Armenia in their next match, they will secure a spot in the third round of Euro qualifications. However, if they lose or draw, and Wales does not win against Turkey, Croatia could end up in the fourth round and face a more difficult draw. In the final tournament draw, which could determine the path of Zlatko Dalić’s team to success, there are several unknowns that can impact the “fiery” squad.
Firstly, there are three other teams that have not been determined yet before Thursday’s draw for additional qualifications. These teams could affect the strength of Croatia’s group and their chances of making it to the Euros. As per Uefa rankings, the holders are Germany, Portugal, France, Spain, Belgium and England. If the qualifications were to end today, Croatia would be in a strong group with Scotland and Slovakia as well as possibly Netherlands and Serbia. However, this group would not allow them to play against some of their rivals.
Hungary and Austria are already safe in Group B with Turkey also present in this group along with Denmark and Albania from Group C. If Croatia were to win against Armenia, they would replace Turkey in this group. In this case, Hungary and Austria would move to Group A while Turkey would move to Group C with Denmark and Albania. This move could be more favorable for Croatia than staying in Group B as it would give them a chance to play against some stronger teams like France or Belgium.
However, if Croatia loses or draws against Armenia and Wales wins against Turkey then Croatia could end up in Group D with Poland from League A Israel from League B Georgia from League C Greece from League C Luxembourg from League D Estonia from League D Finland/Ukraine/Iceland from League B Bosnia-Herzegovina/Finland/Ukraine/Iceland from League B Slovenia/Czech Republic/Switzerland (play-offs) as runners-up with weakest performance . This means that they will have a weaker schedule but at the cost of playing some tougher teams like France or Belgium who will be direct travelers to Germany .