- Investors should not be so down on corporate earnings as very first-quarter final results handily beat estimates, BofA mentioned.
- BofA raised its 2023 S&P 500 EPS forecast by eight% and introduced a new 2024 forecast that suggests 9% development.
- But there are two looming dangers that could in the end rattle the economy and the stock marketplace.
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Initial-quarter earnings final results are in, and they are a lot greater than Wall Street analysts anticipated.
Bank of America’s Ohsung Kwon mentioned in a Thursday note that corporate America’s potential to swiftly adapt to a volatile macro atmosphere signifies investors should not be so unfavorable on the economy offered that earnings final results beat estimates by five% as organizations start to concentrate on productivity and efficiency gains.
“A sturdy very first-quarter when once more showed corporate America’s potential to preserve margins,” Kwon mentioned, highlighting the reality that inflation pressures are easing while pricing power remains on solid footing.
The bank upgraded its S&P 500 2023 earnings per share estimate to $215 from $200 due to the very first-quarter earnings strength, representing an improve of eight%. Moreover, Kwon introduced the bank’s 2024 S&P 500 EPS estimate at $235, which would represent annual development of 9%.
“Earnings usually recover stronger than they fall and we count on 2024 to be a greater profit atmosphere immediately after companies’ concentrate on efficiency and productivity,” Kwon mentioned, adding that a weaker US dollar could also aid enhance profit development subsequent year.
Bank of America
Further upside drivers to corporate earnings, the economy, and the stock marketplace involve a new capital expenditure cycle that leads to huge investments from organizations, with an estimated $600 billion in mega projects getting announced due to the fact January 2021, according to the note.
Although the capital expenditure boom is getting driven by reshoring efforts, in which organizations bring some or all of their production and sourcing capabilities back into America, some is also getting driven by more than $550 billion in fiscal stimulus that stems from the bipartisan infrastructure bill.
These elements pale in comparison to the primary element that helped enhance corporate earnings more than the previous decade: economic engineering in the kind of stock buybacks.
“We count on productivity-led earnings development ahead, rather than financially engineered development from the final decade,” Kwon mentioned.
But there are nonetheless two huge, extended-term dangers that could negatively effect the economy and stock marketplace, according to Kwon.
These dangers are the increasing trend of de-globalization and refinancing dangers due to larger interest prices.
“We are coming out of the most effective 20-year period for earnings development, which started with China joining the WTO in 2001. De-globalization is a huge secular threat, which drove most of the margin improvement more than the previous 20 years,” Kwon explained.
And when about 75% of corporate America’s existing debt burden is fixed at historically low interest prices, larger interest prices could nonetheless be a headwind for specific sectors, like True Estate and Industrials, if the Federal Reserve does not reduce prices in the foreseeable future.
And current FOMC minutes from the Fed recommend a lot requires to come about for interest prices to be reduce anytime quickly.
Bank of America