The US economy may already be in a recession, as predicted by QI Research CEO Danielle DiMartino Booth. Booth pointed to rising job losses and negative labor revisions as key indicators of an economic downturn. She argued that a recession was triggered in October 2023 based on one specific unemployment indicator.
Booth highlighted the significant job loss announcements in May, citing a major spike in job cuts. She has long been skeptical of talk about soft landing and used indicators developed by Goldman Sachs to support her argument. According to these indicators, a recession was triggered in October of last year based on labor revisions through the third quarter of 2023.
Recent data has continued to paint a dire picture of the labor market, with April’s job report delivering fresh weaknesses. Nonfarm payrolls added significantly below estimates, and unemployment ticked up slightly to 3.9%. Booth noted an acceleration of job cut announcements, with analysts projecting rising recession risk and a potential hard landing by the end of the year.
Booth also highlighted changes in severance packages, noting a drop from six to nine-month packages offered in 2023 to 60 to 90 days currently. With job losses on the rise and recession risks looming, the US economy faces challenges that could further impact the labor market.
According to QI Research CEO Danielle DiMartino Booth, signs are pointing towards a possible recession for the US economy. Booth cited rising job losses and negative labor revisions as key indicators of an economic downturn. She argues that a recession was triggered in October 2023 based on one specific unemployment indicator.
Booth highlighted significant job loss announcements in May and pointed out an acceleration of such announcements due to recent data indicating weaknesses in the labor market.
She has long been skeptical about talk about soft landing and used indicators developed by Goldman Sachs to support her argument that a recession was triggered in October of last year based on labor revisions through the third quarter of 2023.
With nonfarm payrolls adding significantly below estimates and unemployment ticking up slightly to 3.9% according to recent data, it seems that the US economy is facing challenges that could further impact the labor market.