Russia’s economy has experienced a significant boost due to the return of its expatriates, despite facing unprecedented Western sanctions. According to Bloomberg, an estimated 1.1 million people left Russia in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine, with 40% to 45% of them now having returned. These returnees are believed to have contributed between one-fifth and one-third of Russia’s 3.6% GDP growth in 2023.
The difficulties faced by Russian expatriates with renewing their residence permits abroad and experiencing discrimination on a personal and institutional level, even in countries that are traditionally considered friendly to Russia and have not imposed sanctions on Moscow, have motivated many to return home. This feeling of resentment and the belief that they were unwelcome in other countries have led many Russians to come back.
Russian propaganda has used the return of these expatriates as proof of widespread “Russophobia” in the West. For President Putin, the return of Russian entrepreneurs and highly skilled workers is seen as a positive trend that supports his policies. The sense of insecurity among Russians abroad may continue to drive the repatriation process as the war continues.
In 2022, Russia experienced two waves of outward migration – one initially after the invasion of Ukraine and the second in the fall during the announcement of a “partial” mobilization by the Kremlin. Many left due to opposition to the war, fears of economic collapse, or a reluctance to be involved in the conflict. While Putin initially described this outflow as a necessary “cleansing of society,” his tone has since shifted to viewing those remaining abroad as a connection between Russia and its foreign partners.
As a result, Russian expatriates have played a significant role in boosting Russia’s economy despite facing unprecedented Western sanctions. However, it remains uncertain how long this trend will continue as tensions between Russia and its foreign partners continue to escalate.