Ukraine’s economy has proven to be resilient, despite the ongoing Russian attacks and supply constraints. In 2023, the country’s GDP grew by 5.3%, with preliminary data from the State Statistics Service indicating that it expanded by 4.7% in the last quarter of the year, marking a third consecutive quarter of growth. This growth was attributed to the resumption of agricultural exports and domestic businesses adapting to new demands, despite the damage caused by Russian attacks.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recognized the remarkable resilience of Ukraine’s economy in 2023 but warned of challenges in 2024. The IMF expects growth to soften to 3%-4% due to uncertainty surrounding the ongoing war and increasing supply constraints. Ukraine faces obstacles such as demands from Poland to block some of its food sales into the European Union to protect Polish farmers, delays in foreign aid, and a labor shortage that is impacting employers.
Bondholders eagerly await economic data as Ukraine seeks to overhaul its debt before a two-year standstill expires later this year. The data on gross domestic product will also determine the government’s payments on securities linked to economic growth, known as GDP warrants. These warrants are currently trading at a high level, above 56 cents on the dollar.
Despite these challenges ahead, Ukraine’s economy has shown resilience and growth in the face of adversity, and the country is working hard to address these obstacles in order to continue its economic recovery.