The Italian government has recently approved its Economic and Financial Document, which predicts GDP growth for 2024 at +1%. While this is slightly lower than the previously forecasted 1.2% growth rate, it reflects the government’s “prudential” approach to public finances in light of various international geopolitical factors, such as conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, tension in the Red Sea, inflation, and high interest rates. Additionally, the unloading of building bonuses intended to stimulate economic recovery after the Covid pandemic has had an impact on public finances.
This marks the last Def under current methods, with new European rules coming into force by September 30th. This has led to the document focusing solely on evaluating the current framework rather than providing a programmatic one. The opposition has criticized this decision for delaying important decisions regarding fiscal policy and economic planning until after the European elections.
The debate between the Commission and Chamber has centered around the impact of Superbonus and building bonuses on public finances, with concerns about their weight constraining public spending for future years. While some argue that this constraint is necessary to maintain financial stability, others believe it limits economic leverage generated by these measures. Eurostat is expected to provide guidance on how to divide the measure’s weight on state budgets in June.
The high debt/GDP ratio remains a significant challenge for Italy’s economy, with public administration debt projected to reach €3 trillion by 2025. The tax burden is expected to decrease slightly to 42.1% of GDP in 2024 but will average 42.3% over the next three years. The latest budget law focused on extending tax cuts for incomes up to €35 thousand euros until 2024 as a countermeasure against inflation.
There are concerns about uncertainty surrounding future public finances due to discussions about avoiding tax increases and ensuring measures like tax cuts are extended. The involvement of European elections adds complexity to decision-making processes and raises questions about how unresolved issues may impact future budgets negatively. Critics have criticized this document for lacking forecasts and delaying crucial decisions regarding fiscal policy and economic planning.
In conclusion, while Italy’s Economic and Financial Document provides some insights into its financial outlook for 2024, there remain many uncertainties surrounding its long-term sustainability due to several domestic and international factors affecting its economy.